101

Archive for the ‘Baseball’ Category

So far, it’s a pitcher’s year in major-league baseball. Not on my team, however.

I pass the first monthly milestone with massive advantages in hitting, due in part to Matt Kemp, who leads the National League in batting average, home runs, RBIs, runs, and hits. David Wright, with the second best batting average, and Jay Bruce, with the second most homers, are a capable supporting cast.

My pitchers are also bucking the trend somewhat, unfortunately. Mat Latos has been almost as bad as Matt Kemp is good. My relievers have had some bad outings and I’ve lost for the year a back-end starter, Chris Narveson.

Yet I find myself in third place at the end of April. I dropped Narveson and picked up Marco Estrada, his replacement on the Milwaukee Brewers. Estrada will get more strikeouts.

.284 batting average (1st by .013)
46 HR (1st by 16!)
146 runs (1st by 2)
145 RBI (1st by 13)
20 SB (5th in the middle of a pack)
3.68 ERA (7th)
1.28 WHIP (6th)
145 K (9th, ten out of 7th)
10 wins (tied for 6th but two out of 4th)
6 saves (tied for 6th)

Remember how I estimated 46 points of hitting? Right now, I have 46 points of hitting. I estimated totals of .275, 225 HR, 910 R, 900 RBI, and 140 SB. On a pro-rated basis, I have .284, 276 HR, 876 R, 870 RBI, and 120 SB. Of all my estimates, I’m only really off in wins and strikeouts, and with seven active starters (Chris Luebke and Estrada qualify as relief pitchers, and if Chris Carpenter starts, he would make it eight), those numbers should start to climb.

Over the past year, I’ve added several fellow managers in the Irrational League to my Facebook friends list. Doing this little monthly updates may expose my position, but so what.

We held our draft last Saturday. As a reminder, we’re in a ten-team NL-only 5×5 league with 25-man rosters and four reserves apiece. We start with six keepers (new) and over five hours scrape every last dreg out of the pot.

This year, I had some choices to make. I had eight protectable players: Matt Kemp, David Wright, Matt Holliday, Lance Berkman, Jay Bruce, Mat Latos, Corey Luebke, Chris Carpenter.

Chris Carpenter’s neck injury quickly whittled the list down to seven, and as much as I love fellow Rice alum Lance Berkman, he was the oldest of the bunch. Bye, Lance.

I went conservative this year. Last year I finished in the money by the hair of my chinny chin chin, with Chris Carpenter’s masterpiece edging me in. A lot went wrong with the draft, as several of my hitters fell off the face of the Earth. This year, I went with more reliable choices… I think. We’ll see. I did take a chance on Chris Carpenter, but that was a late pick and he’s deep in my reserves. And my only first basemen are both question marks, but how hard is it to find a first baseman?

My 2012 hitters and projections:

C: Yadier Molina: .290, 10 HR, 50 R, 55 RBI, 5 SB
C: Miguel Montero: .285, 15 HR, 60 R, 70 RBI
1B: Bryan LaHair: .270, 15 HR, 45 R, 50 RBI
2B: Aaron Hill: .245, 20 HR, 70 R, 70 RBI, 15 SB
SS: Jason Bartlett: .255, 5 HR, 55 R, 45 RBI, 20 SB
3B: David Wright: .285, 20 HR, 80 R, 80 RBI, 15 SB
CI: Justin Turner: .260, 5 HR, 45 R, 45 RBI, 5 SB
MI: Omar Infante: .290, 5 HR, 55 R, 55 RBI, 5 SB
OF: Matt Holliday: .300, 25 HR, 75 R, 80 RBI, 5 SB
OF: Matt Kemp: .290, 30 HR, 100 R, 100 RBI, 30 SB
OF: Jay Bruce: .255, 30 HR, 85 R, 90 RBI, 5 SB
OF: Nyjer Morgan: .280, 5 HR, 55 R, 40 RBI, 20 SB
OF: Chris Heisey: .260, 20 HR, 55 R, 60 RBI, 5 SB
UT: Jim Thome: .240, 15 HR, 35 R, 35 RBI
UT: Gerardo Parra: .290, 5 HR, 45 R, 35 RBI, 5 SB

Adam Kennedy and Josh Hamilton have bench spots. Hey, if the Rangers tank, Hamilton will be on the move.

I estimate totals of .275, 225 HR, 910 R, 900 RBI, and 140 SB. That’s less than I normally draft, but I think that’s a function of last year’s overall reduction in hitting. By last year’s stats, those numbers are good for first in average, home runs, and RBI while well above average in the other two categories. Let’s call it third. That’s 46 points, which is amazing, but I think it’s an exaggeration.

I like my pitching, especially Luebke, who still qualifies as a reliever. There are very few decent starters who qualify as relievers this year. I can think of one, and I have him. There are others, but I don’t like their chances.

SP: Mat Latos: 14 W, 175 K, 3.45 ERA; 1.20 WHIP
SP: Ted Lilly: 12 W, 145 K, 4.15 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
SP: Jordan Zimmermann: 12 W, 140 K, 3.60 ERA; 1.25 WHIP
SP: Jhoulys Chacin: 12 W, 145 K, 3.70 ERA, 1.40 WHIP
P: Erik Bedard: 9 W, 135 K, 3.90 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
P: Chris Narveson: 11 W, 130 K, 4.50 ERA, 1.45 WHIP
RP: Corey Luebke: 12 W, 145 K, 3.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP
RP: Sean Marshall: 30 Sv, 4 W, 70 K, 2.60 ERA, 1.15 WHIP
RP: Eric O’Flaherty: 5 W, 60 K, 2.20 ERA, 1.10 WHIP
RP: Bill Bray: 3 W, 55 K, 2.90 ERA, 1.15 WHIP

Chris Narveson is the only guy I can’t stomach, but he’s only holding a place for Chris Carpenter. I also have Francisco Rodriguez on the bench for emergencies, or if John Axford goes toes up.

I figure I’ll get 30 saves (good for sixth), 94 wins (second), 1195 K (third), an ERA of 3.65 (fifth), and a WHIP of 1.27 (sixth). That’s 33 points in total, which is weak on its own. Combined with the 46 hitting points, though, the total of 79 points should be enough to win. It should take 76 (I had 70 last year).

Chris Carpenter saved his best start of the year for the last day of the year. His two-hit, one-walk complete game capped a spectacular month of pitching by the hurlers on my fantasy team and gained me two points in WHIP. Those two points moved me from fifth to sole possession of third place. I finish in the money.

My final stats:

.2686 batting average (3rd, up one place in the month)
230 HR (1st, post to post)
930 runs (2nd)
936 RBI (1st, post to post)
126 SB (4th, down one place in the month)
3.74 ERA (8th)
1.2628 WHIP (5th by 0.0001 – literally the difference of one hit or walk over the entire season – up from 7th)
1279 K (2nd, up from a tie in 3rd)
90 wins (2nd up from 4th)
5 saves (10th)

In September, my pitchers threw 287 2/3 innings and produced 259 Ks and 341 hits and walks, a WHIP of 1.185. Latos and Carpenter were as untouchable this September as they were decrepit a year ago.

That’s all I have to say about this for now. Sorry, Liz.

There’s a month left in baseball’s regular season and when it ends, so does the Irrational League.

I’m still in fifth place, but inching inexorably toward the money. My pitching is finally approximating what it should and as go its fortunes, so go mine. Paul Maholm got hurt in time for me to ride Randy Wells’s hot right arm. Time is still my enemy, but all the trends are pointing in the right direction. The additions of Hiroki Kuroda (4 wins, 27 K,2.16 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) and Jose Altuve (.292, 3 SB) have helped. Compare these stats with last month’s.

.267 batting average (4th but only .0009 out of third)
199 HR (still 1st by 23)
782 runs (in 2nd 36 out of 1st and 23 ahead of 3rd)
793 RBI (1st by 55)
108 SB (4th but four out of 3rd and four ahead of 5th)
3.82 ERA (8th but now only 0.02 out of 7th)
1.28 WHIP (7th)
1012 K (tied for 3rd, rising from 7th in a month)
73 wins (4th but two out of 2nd)
5 saves (10th)

That’s 65.5 points, but I’ll only need four to show. It’s been worse. My last pick-up of the year was Kevin Kouzmanoff. I’m hoping for a batting average north of .275 in Colorado.

Yep, it’s time to go over the middling Angels with Crystal Balls this month.

I made a trade, sending away Ryan Ludwick and demoted starter Kyle McClellan for Hiroki Kuroda and Juan Uribe. I’m not as fond of Uribe’s numbers as I am of getting rid of Ludwick’s low batting average, which may or may not improve a bit in Pittsburgh. For the August addition, I took Houston rookie Jose Altuve. We’ll see.

So, how is the gang doing? Middlingly well.

.263 batting average (5th but only .004 out of third)
160 HR (1st by 23)
639 runs (2nd but nine out of 1st)
652 RBI (1st by 88)
91 SB (5th but only five out of 3rd)
3.96 ERA (8th)
1.30 WHIP (8th)
755 K (7th)
55 wins (5th but three out of 2nd)
5 saves (9th)

I’m running out of time.

At least I can now sit Randy Wells and Barry Zito.

I spent two weeks at my dad’s while Marion went back to the Bahamas to settle and organize those things that needed to be settles and/or organized. While my dad has an attendant with him during the day, I was still responsible for meals and of course 15 or so hours during nights.

It’s not that tough to do, especially for two weeks, although the Claritin I took to cope with my cat allergy knocked me out. I would sleep for 12 hours through the morning and top it off with an afternoon nap of two or three hours, before or after driving carpool for the kids. My dad cries a lot these days and even though the attendant is there on the front line, I couldn’t concentrate enough to work through the sound.

I haven’t gotten a lot done this month, although I did grab every opportunity to leave the apartment to shop.

But here we are at the end of another month, and that means a baseball update. My team is improving. I have David Wright and now Roy Oswalt on the DL, but my hitting hasn’t missed a beat. Heck, it’s added beats. My pitching has held steady but more importantly is now more properly balanced. My decent pitchers are pitching decently. I have half a season to make up ground there, and to help, I picked up Paul Maholm (desperate times call for desperate measures) for my monthly add/drop. Wave goodbye to Adam Laroche.

Jason Bartlett and Roger Bernadina have stolen 11 bases for me so far.

.264 batting average (3rd)
125 HR (1st by 20)
480 runs (2nd but two out of first)
510 RBI (1st by 88!)
66 SB (5th)
3.98 ERA (8th)
1.32 WHIP (8th)
524 K (9th but six out of eighth)
40 wins (tied for 6th but five out of second)
4 saves (9th)

I have nine starters and Sergio Romo going now. I will move up in strikeouts and wins.

If this is the end of a month, it must be time for a baseball recap.

I made a serious trade on the weekend, sending away the suddenly hot Raul Ibanez along with spare part Ronnie Cedeno and barely warm-bodied Donnie Murphy for Jason Bartlett, Roger Bernadina, and the useless Brooks Conrad. Together, Bartlett and Bernadina have 15 steals so far, and the combo will add a healthy boost of speed to my line-up. I’ve been riddled with injuries, but the sluggers keep slugging. Latos and Carpenter have shown signs of life on the mound, but I could use some more strikeouts. Losing Wandy Rodriguez for at least two weeks won’t help. Nevertheless, my WHIP has improved by 0.05 on the month and my ERA was under 3.90 (before Kyle McClellan fell down and played golden goose against the Giants today).

.258 batting average (4th)
86 HR (1st by 13)
335 runs (1st by 16)
343 RBI (1st by 56!)
39 SB (6th)
3.90 ERA (7th)
1.30 WHIP (6th)
337 K (9th)
23 wins (7th but four out of fourth)
4 saves (9th)

For May Day’s add and drop, I lucked out. One of the teams behind me got impatient with James Loney and dropped him. I grabbed him and let Brooks Conrad retire to live on dreams of playoff heroism.

I’m in fifth place overall, but optimistic, even though I have the least points of any pitching staff in the league.

April flew by, and took the beginning of May with it.

I spent part of one Thursday night in the hospital. My Imitrex and Dilaudid just don’t seem to work on my migraines anymore. Fortunately, the IV anti-emetic in the emergency ward does. In triage, they took my blood pressure and it was way high. I normally have slightly low blood pressure. I asked the nurse about it and she told me, “That’s how we know you’re not faking.”

I talked to my doctor during a check-up on my knee and he prescribed Maxalt and Ralivia. I’m not sure about Ralivia, which is an extended-release pain reliever (my migraines rarely last more than ten hours) but the combo knocked out the migraine I had last night.

Speaking of my knee, the doctor told me that there was a lot less joint movement. He thinks the ACL is healing and that I don’t need a surgical repair.

If this is start of a month, that means it’s time for a baseball update.

Led by Lance Berkman, my sluggers are creaming the ball – when they hit it. Too many hitters are struggling, and bringing my batting average down. Most of my pitchers are performing as expected except the two I thought would be best, keepers Chris Carpenter and Mat Latos. They’ve continued to pitch as poorly as they did last September. C’mon boys, step it up.

.256 batting average (6th)
49 HR (1st by 5 HRs)
208 runs (1st by 15)
209 RBI (1st by 45!)
29 SB (tied 6th, four out of second)
4.14 ERA (7th)
1.35 WHIP (7th)
200 K (9th)
14 wins (7th but four out of first)
3 saves (9th)

I have the worst pitching and second best hitting of all teams. I have 56.5 points and sit in fifth place overall. The standings are volatile, however, and every week sees nearly random shifts among the top top eight teams.

For May Day’s add and drop, I dumped Sam Demel and picked up Daniel Murphy. He better outperform Jason Bourgeois is all I gots to say about that.

My pitching can’t stay this bad, can it?

Fa la la la la, la la play ball!

I’m optimistic. Was I last year? Let me check… I was, and then I finished in fifth. But we’ve been through that already. Enough with the past!

Introducing the 2011 Angels with Crystal Balls, along with my estimates of future performance which may or may not prove indicative of results:

C: Yadier Molina: .280, 5 HR, 50 R, 45 RBI, 5 SB
C: Ryan Hanigan: .275, 5 HR, 25 R, 25 RBI, 0 SB
1B: Lance Berkman: .265, 15 HR, 65 R, 60 RBI, 5 SB
2B: Jose Lopez: .290, 20 HR, 70 R, 85 RBI, 5 SB
3B: David Wright: .295, 25 HR, 90 R, 95 RBI, 15 SB
SS: Miguel Tejada: .285, 10 HR, 50 R, 60 RBI, 0 SB
MI: Ronny Cedeno: .245, 10 HR, 50 R, 45 RBI, 10 SB
CI: Adam Laroche: .265, 25 HR, 70 R, 80 RBI, 0 SB
OF: Matt Holliday: .305, 20 HR, 70 R, 70 RBI, 10 SB
OF: Matt Kemp: .270, 25 HR, 85 R, 85 RBI, 20 SB
OF: Jay Bruce: .265, 30 HR, 80 R, 85 RBI, 5 SB
OF: Aubrey Huff: .280, 20 HR, 70 R, 75 RBI, 5 SB
OF: Raul Ibanez: .275, 20 HR, 65 R, 70 RBI, 0 SB
U: Nate McClouth: .235, 20 HR, 70 R, 65 RBI, 15 SB
U: Ryan Ludwick: .255, 25 HR, 65 R, 75 RBI, 0 SB

That lineup has many familiar faces, and I don’t mean the four keepers of Wright, Holliday, Kemp, and Bruce. Laroche, McClouth, and Ludwick rejoin the team through the draft; so does reserve infielder Jeff Baker. Keeping Baker company on the bench for now is Donnie Murphy. One thing that is not familiar is the runs category, which we added along with pitchers’ total strikeouts.

Other than Ryan Hanigan (who thumped two of his expected five homers this afternoon), every hitter has a full-time job. I estimate final team totals of .280 batting average, 260 HR, 965 runs, 1010 RBI, and 95 SB. Adding the runs category drives down the value of stolen bases, which drop from 25% of a team’s score to 20%. My team is not going to be running wild and will probably finish around seventh in that category. On the other hand, I expect this team to sew up home runs and RBI. Runs will be a top three finish, let’s say third, and the .280 average will also finish high – again, let’s say third. It seems I’m relying on 40 points, which is good but not great. Last year, I predicted I’d get 36 points in hitting in only four categories. (I wound up with 33, which led the league.)

Pitching can’t help but be better than last year’s 15 measly points. I can’t possibly have a collapse as quick and as dreadful as 2010′s, can I? I definitely won’t finish fourth in WHIP and tenth in ERA again. that’s just crazy.

SP: Mat Latos: 13 W, 155 K, 3.00 ERA, 1.15 WHIP
SP: Chris Carpenter: 15 W, 135 K, 3.25 ERA, 1.20 WHIP
SP: Roy Oswalt: 15 W, 155 K, 3.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP
SP: Wandy Rodriguez: 12 W, 160 K,4.05 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
SP: Randy Wells: 12 W, 125 K, 4.30 ERA, 1.40 WHIP
SP: Barry Zito: 12 W, 125 K, 4.45 ERA, 1.45 WHIP
RP: Kyle McClellan: 11 W, 95 K,3.90 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
RP: Sergio Romo: 5 SV, 4 W, 60 K, 2.30 ERA, 1.05 WHIP
RP: Sean Burnett: 10 SV, 3 W, 50 K, 3.15 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
RP: Corey Luebke: 10 W, 105 K, 4.55 ERA, 1.40 WHIP

I loaded up on starters and their strikeouts at the risk of a low finish in saves. Closers were popular at the draft, and went way before I was willing to pick them. That suited me fine, as I loaded up on hitting and starting pitching. My estimated final stats are 14 saves, 106 wins, 1175 strikeouts, 3.78 ERA, and a WHIP of 1.29. I’ll finish first in wins and ninth in saves. I have no idea about the strikeouts, but let’s say fourth. The ERA and WHIP are good enough for third place in an average year. That comes out to 35 points – a bit weaker than I thought my calculation would produce.

Ahh, well – pitching’s volatile. I have Chris Capuano and Sam Demel on the bench. Let’s see what happens.

I haven’t told much about Child Three’s baseball team, for which I was an assistant coach. The team hobbled to a last-place finish in the regular season but incredible pitching got us to the penultimate game, which we lost for a third-place finish. Child Three had a marvelous season at the plate. The power isn’t there, but the batting eye is, as is the swing. The little on-base machine takes after his dad.

But now is hockey season. Child Three and I were ready to make and coach NDG’s Atom CC team this year until the city BB team cut an NDG goalie, bumping both of us down to Atom A, on a team with two goalies.

Our team was shut out in our first two games and have scored two goals in each of the next two, good for a 1-2-1 record. I love this team, though. Nearly every kid applies himself and, in one case, herself, and we may be the best skating team in the league. It’s beautiful to watch. We’ve been working on offense lately in recent practices….

I feel bad about today’s 2-2 tie, however. The kids worked hard, outshooting the opposition 18-6. I can’t fault our goalie for the two goals given up, both were great shots. My job as a coach is to put my team in a position to succeed, but today I put them in a position to fail.

One of our defensemen is new to the position. The basics of the position are just not sinking in, though. I teach and I teach, and he just doesn’t get it. Today, the entire team played poorly in the first five minutes, but the goal we gave up was on a rebound that went to a player that our out-of-position defenseman should have been covering. He had not been playing well or skating hard, and you can’t have a kid like that on defense. I decided to give him another chance before I would switch him with a wing who I know can play D.

By the time the first period ended, we had taken a 2-1 lead, and my troublesome defender played OK. I decided to leave him alone. The second period saw few shots from either team, but at the start of the third, that same defenseman had reverted. I figured I would let him finish the game at defense since we were dominating play.

That was my mistake. I put him in a position to fail. I should have switched him out and put a better defender back there to protect the lead. His poor positioning allowed two breakaways in the last minute of play, one of which turned into a goal in the last minute of play. Those breakaways led to the only two shots we gave up in the third period.

I really blame myself. Kids play like kids play, and it’s my job to maximize their potential. I failed at that today, but it’s a lesson for the future.