Morgan Rielly’s temporarily tying goal lies on the shoulders of Lars Eller, but not because it bounced off his torso and trickled through Carey Price’s five hole.

Eller had two decisions to make before Rielly got near the puck, and chose unwisely both times.

(Pardon the screenshots with the faded play button in the middle. I’m not patient enough to wait for this to appear on YouTube so I used the NHL highlight.)

Fifteen seconds before deflecting the puck into the net, Eller took control of loose puck along the left boards in the defensive zone.

He makes his first poor decision in choosing to swing in front of his own net instead of taking the puck behind it. Taking the puck behind the net, he has a potential outlet pass on either side or can run a set play. By taking the puck through the slot, he boxes himself in between the two forecheckers and his net. The Maple Leaf players can predict his path in the short term because he can only keep skating left.

The Leafs see this and block Eller’s further movement right and can intercept any pass to PK Subban. Eller must take the puck behind the net now, but the pursuit is much closer than it was when he first picked up the puck.

Ever since both Leafs followed Eller, Alexei Emelin has been standing all alone. He sees Eller swing around the net and prepares to accept a pass they will lead to an easy breakout along the left with three Leafs in on the right side. Eller, though, is fixated on Subban and looking back at him. Eller never sees Emelin. Eller instead dishes the puck backwards along the boards to Subban, his second major error. It’s not a strong pass given that he’s skating hard in the opposite direction.

By the time Subban gets the puck, a Leaf is on him and another is about to join the scrum.

The Habs lose possession of the puck, which will eventually lead to the tying goal.

I have been retired from coaching the kids so you’ll have to put up with me doing this. Sorry.

Bonus update:

Here’s the video.

Don’t listen to the columnists and sportswriters who say the US women dominated the gold-medal game for 57 or whatever minutes. It’s simply not true. Canada dominated that game but didn’t have the same puck luck until the end.

Corsi is an advanced stat that counts shot attempts, shots, missed shots, and blocked shots are all Corsi events. Corsi has proven to be the best predictor of hockey success, probably because it smooths out the luck factor.

Now, power plays obviously give any team an advantage in shots and Corsi, so using only even-strength Corsi numbers is the best analysis. Mainstream reporters and organizations like the NHL or the IOC don’t supply those numbers. You either have to calculate them yourself or take advantage of someone else who does, like Darryl Metcalf at Extra Skater.

Darryl isn’t closely following Olympic hockey games, so I am indebted to Jen LC, who posted her calculations on Twitter.

Here’s the money shot:

Canada out-Corsied the US at even strength by 53-28.

Traditionally – a weird word for how new the stat is – Corsi is measured as a percentage of a game’s events. Canada’s 65% is phenomenally dominating.

Canada deserved that game. As Jen put it, “Not that I loved the penalties or anything but at 5v5 Canada owned the puck.”

Update:

And here are Jen’s numbers for the men’s US vs. Canada game.

Actually, hockey starts in September when we’re still in sandals. I am, at least.

Here are some video highlights from Child Three’s attendance at NDG goalie clinic this week.

He’s having a good year so far, having given up only eight goals in his five games. Our Peewee A team is improving and I really feel we can beat nearly every team in the league, although we currently have a 3-3-4 record that includes two ties and a loss against teams we should have beaten.